Water Crux MageTier 2
at Ascent Akihabara
decks
3
(0.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
32
15-11-6
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.7%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
49.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1413
· median 1340
· range 1338–1561
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1204
Q3 1418
1736
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 15.6% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 40.0% | -7.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.3% | +8.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -3.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.1% | -5.6 |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 68.8% | +14.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.8% | +6.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.7% | +4.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 27.2% | -21.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.6% | +21.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.8 |
| Water Fractal | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.7% | -24.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 60.4% | +7.8 |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Water Kongming | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
